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While we cannot fully predict the future, we can gain some insight into who the new (mineral) kids on the block will be, by 2050. Based upon what we call the demand risk matrix, we know that aluminum, copper and nickel are “critical” minerals that will play a strong role in the transition to a low-carbon future, as they will be needed for a wide variety of technologies. Graphite and lithium are also “critical”, but their outlook depends on the extent to which battery storage is deployed between now and 2050.
Minerals that are “cross-cutting” will be important because they will be used across a wide variety of technologies. One example is copper: it is used across all 10 energy technologies – so regardless of the low-carbon “pathway”, it is likely to be relevant in 2050. It also means that the clean energy transition will depend very much on the availability of copper itself.
“High-impact” minerals only feature in a small number of technologies, but their future demand is significantly greater than today. One example is lithium, which will only be used in energy storage, but must ramp up its production by 488% to meet demand. Cobalt and graphite fall in the same category.
“Medium-impact” minerals, such as neodymium and silver, will be needed for a small range of energy technologies, and their demand is not expected to grow significantly between now and 2050. However, neodymium is a key ingredient for offshore wind turbines.
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